New Seat Details - Boston and Skegness

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Boston and Skegness been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	30,069	63.7%
LAB	11,752	24.9%
UKIP	3,526	7.5%
LIB	924	2.0%
Green	598	1.3%
OTH	347	0.7%
CON Majority	18,317	38.8%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Boston and Skegness: Map

List of old seats forming part of Boston and Skegness

Old seat: Boston and Skegness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Boston and Skegness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Boston and Skegness				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Boston	Coastal	2,839	Boston and Skegness	1,211	277	27	97	12	0	0	12	1,636
Boston	Fenside	1,998	Boston and Skegness	1,072	742	24	155	16	0	0	13	2,022
Boston	Fishtoft	4,806	Boston and Skegness	1,847	594	69	261	79	0	0	19	2,869
Boston	Five Village	2,892	Boston and Skegness	1,128	352	19	100	35	0	0	13	1,647
Boston	Kirton and Frampton	4,512	Boston and Skegness	1,936	564	41	227	21	0	0	19	2,808
Boston	Old Leake and Wrangle	2,559	Boston and Skegness	1,046	262	17	108	9	0	0	3	1,445
Boston	Skirbeck	3,541	Boston and Skegness	1,580	1,245	64	184	72	0	0	9	3,154
Boston	St Thomas'	1,432	Boston and Skegness	670	211	25	103	10	0	0	8	1,027
Boston	Staniland	2,294	Boston and Skegness	922	514	34	112	16	0	0	17	1,615
Boston	Station	840	Boston and Skegness	574	402	18	87	30	0	0	4	1,115
Boston	Swineshead and Holland Fen	2,765	Boston and Skegness	1,138	285	20	114	11	0	0	13	1,581
Boston	Trinity	2,703	Boston and Skegness	1,237	571	48	141	23	0	0	13	2,033
Boston	West	1,397	Boston and Skegness	530	121	13	47	5	0	0	2	718
Boston	Witham	2,262	Boston and Skegness	1,008	510	79	148	19	0	0	12	1,776
Boston	Wyberton	2,994	Boston and Skegness	1,202	378	43	175	15	0	0	16	1,829
East Lindsey	Burgh le Marsh	1,984	Boston and Skegness	703	182	15	83	8	0	0	7	998
East Lindsey	Croft	1,802	Boston and Skegness	787	140	8	39	7	0	0	11	992
East Lindsey	Friskney	1,698	Boston and Skegness	695	181	9	74	5	0	0	3	967
East Lindsey	Halton Holegate	342	Louth and Horncastle	147	37	3	21	2	0	0	2	212
East Lindsey	Ingoldmells	1,476	Boston and Skegness	558	349	12	70	9	0	0	10	1,008
East Lindsey	Scarbrough and Seacroft	5,924	Boston and Skegness	2,316	958	65	327	35	0	0	21	3,722
East Lindsey	Sibsey and Stickney	3,992	Boston and Skegness	1,550	345	25	139	14	0	0	20	2,093
East Lindsey	St Clement's	3,398	Boston and Skegness	1,215	567	43	197	18	0	0	14	2,054
East Lindsey	Wainfleet	1,841	Boston and Skegness	695	290	12	71	7	0	0	6	1,081
East Lindsey	Winthorpe	3,896	Boston and Skegness	1,504	622	36	231	67	0	0	17	2,477
	Total	66,187		27,271	10,699	769	3,311	545	0	0	284	42,879

The full details of these calculations are given on the Boston and Skegness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Kesteven	Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell	3,893	Sleaford	2,392	709	90	60	32	0	0	37	3,320
North Kesteven	Bassingham and Brant Broughton	3,884	Sleaford	1,897	598	96	164	37	0	0	35	2,827
North Kesteven	Billinghay, Martin and North Kyme	4,009	Sleaford	1,713	975	104	70	40	0	0	43	2,945
North Kesteven	Branston	3,889	Sleaford	1,878	757	131	67	47	0	0	42	2,922
North Kesteven	Cliff Villages	4,215	Sleaford	2,037	814	129	72	51	0	0	54	3,157
North Kesteven	Eagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs	4,140	Sleaford	2,053	780	124	65	43	0	0	42	3,107
North Kesteven	Heckington Rural	4,269	Boston and Skegness	2,023	752	112	207	39	0	0	47	3,180
North Kesteven	Heighington and Washingborough	5,417	Sleaford	2,664	842	193	224	59	0	0	28	4,010
North Kesteven	Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme	1,875	Boston and Skegness	922	338	46	29	16	0	0	18	1,369
North Kesteven	Leasingham and Rauceby	1,736	Sleaford	831	296	51	28	18	0	0	20	1,244
North Kesteven	Metheringham	4,142	Sleaford	2,154	803	127	70	44	0	0	39	3,237
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Forum	1,809	Lincoln and North Hykeham	903	398	83	37	24	0	0	21	1,466
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Memorial	2,195	Lincoln and North Hykeham	933	422	86	38	26	0	0	24	1,529
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Mill	3,702	Lincoln and North Hykeham	1,619	660	117	57	38	0	0	42	2,533
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Moor	1,854	Lincoln and North Hykeham	794	396	79	35	62	0	0	20	1,386
North Kesteven	North Hykeham Witham	1,919	Lincoln and North Hykeham	926	333	60	32	20	0	0	17	1,388
North Kesteven	Osbournby	1,861	Sleaford	964	308	39	27	16	0	0	18	1,372
North Kesteven	Ruskington	4,329	Sleaford	2,199	855	114	76	40	0	0	49	3,333
North Kesteven	Sleaford Castle	1,789	Sleaford	881	523	77	43	27	0	0	28	1,579
North Kesteven	Sleaford Holdingham	1,929	Sleaford	914	536	77	44	26	0	0	30	1,627
North Kesteven	Sleaford Navigation	1,817	Sleaford	898	564	82	47	26	0	0	26	1,643
North Kesteven	Sleaford Quarrington and Mareham	5,296	Sleaford	2,585	1,151	196	106	61	0	0	61	4,160
North Kesteven	Sleaford Westholme	1,793	Sleaford	799	520	73	43	25	0	0	29	1,489
North Kesteven	Waddington West	1,887	Lincoln and North Hykeham	895	371	70	100	21	0	0	9	1,466
South Kesteven	Belvoir	2,639	Sleaford	1,311	440	59	33	23	0	0	13	1,879
South Kesteven	Grantham Arnoldfield	177	Grantham and Stamford	74	38	6	9	2	0	0	2	131
South Kesteven	Grantham St Wulfram's	228	Grantham and Stamford	94	63	8	11	3	0	0	1	180
South Kesteven	Loveden Heath	2,057	Sleaford	1,012	382	58	33	21	0	0	28	1,534
South Kesteven	Peascliffe and Ridgeway	3,889	Sleaford	1,954	712	116	64	41	0	0	38	2,925
South Kesteven	Viking	3,988	Sleaford	1,925	672	119	60	42	0	0	38	2,856
	Total	86,627		42,244	17,008	2,722	1,951	970	0	0	899	65,794

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sleaford and North Hykeham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Boston and Skegness

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Boston and Skegness
Boston	Coastal	2,610	Boston and Skegness	1,211	277	27	97	12	0	0	12	1,636
Boston	Fenside	3,225	Boston and Skegness	1,072	742	24	155	16	0	0	13	2,022
Boston	Fishtoft	4,577	Boston and Skegness	1,847	594	69	261	79	0	0	19	2,869
Boston	Five Village	2,626	Boston and Skegness	1,128	352	19	100	35	0	0	13	1,647
Boston	Kirton and Frampton	4,479	Boston and Skegness	1,936	564	41	227	21	0	0	19	2,808
Boston	Old Leake and Wrangle	2,304	Boston and Skegness	1,046	262	17	108	9	0	0	3	1,445
Boston	Skirbeck	5,028	Boston and Skegness	1,580	1,245	64	184	72	0	0	9	3,154
Boston	St Thomas'	1,638	Boston and Skegness	670	211	25	103	10	0	0	8	1,027
Boston	Staniland	2,576	Boston and Skegness	922	514	34	112	16	0	0	17	1,615
Boston	Station	1,778	Boston and Skegness	574	402	18	87	30	0	0	4	1,115
Boston	Swineshead and Holland Fen	2,523	Boston and Skegness	1,138	285	20	114	11	0	0	13	1,581
Boston	Trinity	3,245	Boston and Skegness	1,237	571	48	141	23	0	0	13	2,033
Boston	West	1,145	Boston and Skegness	530	121	13	47	5	0	0	2	718
Boston	Witham	2,831	Boston and Skegness	1,008	510	79	148	19	0	0	12	1,776
Boston	Wyberton	2,916	Boston and Skegness	1,202	378	43	175	15	0	0	16	1,829
East Lindsey	Burgh le Marsh	1,593	Boston and Skegness	703	182	15	83	8	0	0	7	998
East Lindsey	Croft	1,583	Boston and Skegness	787	140	8	39	7	0	0	11	992
East Lindsey	Friskney	1,543	Boston and Skegness	695	181	9	74	5	0	0	3	967
East Lindsey	Ingoldmells	1,607	Boston and Skegness	558	349	12	70	9	0	0	10	1,008
East Lindsey	Scarbrough and Seacroft	5,936	Boston and Skegness	2,316	958	65	327	35	0	0	21	3,722
East Lindsey	Sibsey and Stickney	3,338	Boston and Skegness	1,550	345	25	139	14	0	0	20	2,093
East Lindsey	St Clement's	3,276	Boston and Skegness	1,215	567	43	197	18	0	0	14	2,054
East Lindsey	Wainfleet	1,725	Boston and Skegness	695	290	12	71	7	0	0	6	1,081
East Lindsey	Winthorpe	3,951	Boston and Skegness	1,504	622	36	231	67	0	0	17	2,477
North Kesteven	Heckington Rural	4,395	Sleaford and North Hykeham	2,023	752	112	207	39	0	0	47	3,180
North Kesteven	Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme	1,893	Sleaford and North Hykeham	922	338	46	29	16	0	0	18	1,369
	Total	74,341		30,069	11,752	924	3,526	598	0	0	347	47,216

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Boston and Skegness. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Matt Warman (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,341
Turnout:	63.5%

Boston and Skegness: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Boston and Skegness: Overview

Introduction